Over a year-and-a-half ago, protests broke out in the small North-African country of Tunisia. Many in this country had become frustrated by poor economic conditions and demanded the removal of long time dictator Ben Ali. To the surprise (and chagrin) of many, these large scale and generally non-violent protests were actually quite effective, forcing Ali to flee the country and leading to elections in Tunisia for the first time in 23 years. Inspired by the success of these protests, populist movements arose throughout the Middle East and North Africa: from Morocco to Bahrain and several countries in between.
I am, of course, talking about the Arab Spring. 18 months ago, I, like many Canadians, looked with hope at the success of this non-violent movement, envisioning a new era for democracy in the Middle East. But has the Arab Spring really brought about the positive change that many were hoping for? This is, obviously, a question that cannot be fully answered in a single blog post (and no, not even in a three-part series). I would, however, like to talk about at the present-day situation in three countries that have been dramatically affected by the Arab Spring: Egypt, Libya, and Syria. In this post, I will briefly discuss the situation in Egypt, a country which seemed initially to epitomize the ideals of the Arab Spring, though today many (including myself) question the real success of the movement in effecting meaningful or positive change in the country.
Egypt:
Early on, the Arab Spring in Egypt represented, in my opinion, the apex of the Arab Spring movement. Inspired by the revolution in Tunisia, peaceful protests were organized and carried out with dramatic effect throughout the country, beginning in January, 2011. And these protests, which included Egyptians from a variety of ethnic, religious, and socio-economic backgrounds, were devastatingly effective in achieving their goals: the overthrow of dictator Hosni Mubarak and the implementation of a democratic government in Egypt. And what truly made these revolutions inspirational, in my view, was the fact that, by and large, they remained peaceful. This was possible because Egypt's military council made the decision to not intervene on behalf of Mubarak, choosing instead to keep the security of Egyptian citizens as its top priority. And so, when Mubarak finally stepped down and handed power to Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the move was welcomed and celebrated by those who participated in bringing about Egypt’s ‘spring’.Yet after Mubarak’s regime had fallen, many in Egypt began to express frustration at the military council’s perceived reluctance to hand power back to the Egyptian people. Protests continued throughout the country, as Egyptians urged the military council to make good on its promises and hold civilian elections. Finally, beginning in November, Egypt held its first parliamentary election since Mubarak’s ousting, resulting in a win by the moderate Islamic group, the Muslim Brotherhood. Soon, presidential campaigns were underway. Yet at this point, a Mubarak era court, citing election irregularities, dissolved the democratically elected Egyptian parliament, allowing the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to institute an ‘interim’ constitution, granting themselves sweeping powers, including the ability to arrest and try any civilian in a military court. When Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammad Morsi was declared to have won Egypt’s presidential race and sworn into office, many felt that the move was merely symbolic, since the military council’s constitution imposed such limits on the president’s power.
Given the current situation in Egypt, the country’s experience of the Arab Spring could hardly be called a success. So what is next for Egypt? Is the military council clinging to power for its own purposes or is it merely trying to protect Egypt from a potentially dangerous Islamic revolution (think Iran)? Are foreign interests at play behind the scenes? Is Egypt headed for democracy, Islamic revolution, or military dictatorship?
Let me know what you think.
Dan
Very interesting and informative, Dan!
ReplyDeleteAs an optimist, I think Egypt's future is bright because the new President seems to have the support of the public. I feel that is a huge factor right now, because Mubarak was such an unpopular figure with the people.
Thanks for sharing this post Dan. i must say that there are many lessons to be learnt from the Arab Spring. Nonetheless, the most important lesson that Arab Spring in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries shows us is that the will and the power of the masses will always prevail in the end. Egyptians exercised this power by expressing their disapproval of the Mubarak regime through peaceful protest, subsequently calling for Mubarak's ouster. Similarly, Egyptians exercised this power yet again by engaging in free and fair elections; and majority of Egyptians voted for Mohammed Morsi as their president. So to answer your questions, I don't think the military council is holding on to power to protect Egypt from a dangerous revolution similar to that which occurred in Iran over 30 years ago. After all, Egyptians exercised their suffrage, and elected Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood presidential candidate, their leader. I think it is baseless to think that because the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate was elected president of Egypt that that could somehow mean that Egypt will become an islamic state by default. i strongly believe that Western corporate media outlets are deliberately carrying out grave misrepresentation of the Muslim Brotherhood's manifesto. Perhaps, the military is holding onto power for one main reason; which could be to protect the economic interest(gas supply from egypt)and political interest (Egypt's non involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict) of both the Israeli government and the United States government in the Middle East. My guess is that the Egyptian masses will most likely exercise their 'people power' once again; this time against the Egypt's military, calling on them to relinquish full power to the democratically elected President of Egypt. And I am optimistic that the power of the masses will prevail in Egypt once more.
ReplyDeleteAs a pessimist, I think Egypt's future is a military dictatorship. The decision to dissolve parliament by a US backed junta was an clear step away from democracy for Egyptians. As long as the US continues to prevent Islamic revolution (which is ironic considering its own religiously based constitution and lack of liberalism) through the backing of Mubarak era government, there will be no democracy for Egypt.
ReplyDeleteI think the country's future is very bright. For the first time in 60 years, the people have voted and a democratic government has been chosen by the public. Development is gradual process and I belief the Arab spring has been the main key for the success of Egypt. It will take time but at least for now, the future seems better than 2011 when Mubarak was in power.
ReplyDeleteThe US and Israel feel the threat of the new Egyptian government because they need reassurance that the new president is a puppet for them just like Mubarak. Also, if the 1979 Peace agreement between Egypt and Israel is still respected by the new government!
Great points, everyone. I think it is worth noting that today, President Morsi has "reinstated" the elected parliament. I'm not sure what this will actually mean for now, but it seems like a positive step, as long as the military doesn't react with violence.
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